19 March 2026
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Public opinion about heat pumps is shifting, supported by new studies that reveal increased end user satisfaction and high performance in cold conditions. Tim Mitchell, Sales Director at Klima Therm explores the real-world data that is overturning outdated assumptions about heat pumps and what it means for installers, specifiers and decision makers in 2026.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) public attitudes tracker’s research from Summer 20251, showed that 76% of respondents had an awareness of air source heat pumps, up from 71% in 2021. Overall, 88% understood we need to change the way our homes are heated to meet Net Zero targets.
There is also a growing body of evidence to support the effectiveness and performance of heat pumps in the UK.
HeatPumpMonitor.org recently analysed a complete year of data for 169 ASHP systems and found that, when well-designed, ASHPs achieve an average seasonal performance factor (SPF) of 3.86 – a 40% improvement on the 2.81 previously found under the Electrification of Heat project (EoH).
This evidence is backed by Octopus Energy’s recent consumer research2. More than 1,800 UK based households were surveyed by the energy giant during a recent cold snap. Heat pump owners were more satisfied than gas boiler users across key metrics, including performance during cold weather (85% vs 80%) and running costs (66% vs 43%).
So, what can we take from all this? Well, that when heat pumps systems are specified, designed and commissioned correctly, they are the superior choice, keeping buildings warm and bills low; even as temperatures drop.
Understanding heat pumps – it’s not one-size-fits-all
Perhaps the most important point for installers and specifiers to grasp is that heat pumps are not a one-size-fits-all technology. Each installation must be correctly designed on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the building’s specific requirements, thermal performance and usage patterns.
Refrigerant selection has become increasingly important as the industry moves away from high global warming potential (GWP) synthetic refrigerants toward more sustainable alternatives. Natural refrigerants such as CO2 (R744) and propane (R290) are gaining traction due to their minimal environmental impact, with GWP values close to zero compared to hundreds or thousands for traditional HFC refrigerants.
Different refrigerants behave very differently across typical HVAC temperature ranges, however. CO2 heat pumps, for example, operate using transcritical cycles and, when applied correctly, will maintain high efficiency even in extreme cold. Additionally, even standard CO2 machines can deliver hot water at temperatures up to 90°C, which is advantageous for retrofit applications where existing radiators may require increased flow temperatures.
One challenge with CO2 systems is that they operate at much higher pressures, requiring specialised equipment and installer training; another is that those very high efficiencies are only realised with systems operating across large flow and return temperature differences. Indeed, they are best applied to systems with large domestic hot water loads, where the hot water is consumed and the water to be heated is the top-up water at typical mains water service temperatures.
Propane-based heat pumps offer excellent thermodynamic properties and can achieve good COPs across a wide temperature range. Propane systems tend to be more efficient than many synthetic refrigerants in mild to moderate cold conditions typical of the UK climate. Propane is flammable and so requires careful handling and adherence to safety regulations, with charge size limitations that may affect system design in larger applications.
Heat pumps for all climates
In the UK, there seems to be misplaced anxiety about heat pumps operating on cold days - of which we have relatively few throughout the year. We need only look to Scandinavian countries where this technology is widely used to heat homes in climates far colder than the UK experiences. If heat pumps can keep Norwegians warm through Arctic winters, they can certainly handle a British January!
In reality, our changing climate means that overheating is becoming a far more pressing concern for many of our buildings, particularly those in packed city centres. Great British summers, which were once at best comfortably warm and more likely to result in soggy picnics than heat stroke, are now regularly hitting record breaking temperatures. Heatwaves of 40°C are no longer exceptional events but the new normal that we must plan for. We need climate control solutions that keep inside temperatures optimal whatever the weather.
For commercial applications, polyvalent and reversible heat pumps3 offer the solution. By switching seamlessly between heating and cooling, and in some instances providing both functions simultaneously, delivering year-round comfort from a single integrated system, polyvalent heat pumps can lead to reduced capital expenditure, simplified maintenance and lower operational emissions.
Advances in variable-speed compressors, EC fans, variable primary flow controls and low-GWP refrigerants are pushing polyvalent heat pump efficiencies higher than ever before. The award winning UniPack-P range from Rhoss, for example, can produce hot water up to 72°C and cold water from -10°C to 20°C, ensuring optimal performance in diverse climate conditions.
Another key advantage of reversible heat pumps is flexibility of integration. Many models are designed for installation alongside existing HVAC systems and when incorporated into new-build designs from the outset, can deliver even greater efficiencies.
Looking ahead
For heat pumps to achieve widespread adoption in 2026 and beyond, we need everything to come together in a reinforcing cycle. Evidence from independent studies demonstrating real-world performance is key, but we also need technology and tools that make the specification and installation process quicker and easier, supporting installer confidence at every stage that translates into high-quality, high-performance installations.
If 2026 is to be the year we finally change the narrative around heat pumps, it will require everyone in the industry playing their part. Manufacturers must continue innovating and providing the training and support installers need. Installers must invest in developing their skills and confidence. Policymakers must create an environment that encourages quality over speed. And specifiers must take the time to understand each building’s unique requirements.
Reversible heat pumps offer a practical, low-carbon, future-ready solution that addresses both sides of the thermal comfort challenge – cooling in the summer, heating in the winter – with outstanding efficiency. At the moment, this technology is most widely adopted in commercial applications, but if we are serious about climate resilience, HVAC solutions that provide year round temperature (and air quality) control should be the gold standard for all buildings.
The data shows heat pumps work. The technology is proven. Now it’s time to change the conversation.
Source
1. https://tinyurl.com/3xbjfa4d
2. https://tinyurl.com/mr3y77be
3. https://klima-therm.co.uk/products/heat-pumps/ polyvalent-heat-pumps/
